It may be time to count our “greenhouse” blessings…or move to a warmer climate. if science really does guide the Gillard government on emissions abatement and justify the costs of their proposed tax, new reports suggest the need to pause and re-assess.
Reports all over the web (NASA, National Geographic, Space.com) point to an American Astronomical Society announcement of three independent studies that predict dramatically reduced solar activity over the next solar cycle (otherwise due to peak around 2025).
“As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.” Quoted on Watts Up With That?
The pre-industrial era’s coldest period (instrumented) was associated with a 70-year series of such weak solar cycles from 1645 to 1715. A century later, Europe’s “year without a summer” (1816) coincided with a less prolonged “grand miniumum”.
The warmists say that the increase in atmospheric CO2 since then, when combined with so-far-undemonstrated positive feedback mechanisms in the climate system, will be responsible for a “greenhouse” warming of the climate by 3° to 4° over the next century. The AAS projections can only make us hope they’re right.