Monthly Archives: March 2008

Statistical analysis of Rhamstorf et al

David Stock­well of Niche Mod­el­ing pro­vides a tech­ni­cal assess­ment of the Rahm­storf et. al. paper that Ross Garnaut’s Review relies on. He sug­gests that the Rahm­storf et. al. may have ‘padded’ the end of their data series to make their trend analy­sis more plausible.

Symposium: Future of the Multilateral Trade System

Mon­day, 7 April 2008 at the Cen­ter for Pub­lic Pol­icy at the Uni­ver­sity of Mel­bourne. The team of ana­lyt­i­cal ‘heavy-hitters’—I’m sure they love being called that—who served on the War­wick Com­mis­sion will con­duct a full-day sym­po­sium on why WTO is in such a mess (or not). I’ll be speak­ing, too, on ‘crit­i­cal mass’ agree­ments and whether they’ll lead an explo­sionin the WTO. Please come…Pro­gram over the fold.

Two reasons for caution in climate mitigation

click for larger imageI can see two rea­sons for cau­tion about the dra­matic action on cli­mate change advo­cated by the Gar­naut Review. First, sta­tis­ti­cal analy­sis of tem­per­a­ture trends con­tra­dicts claims (from the Review among oth­ers) that increases over the last decade are “on track” to meet or exceed IPCC pro­jec­tions. Sec­ond, the CO2–linked the­o­ries of cli­mate change lack basic plau­si­bil­ity and recent obser­va­tions (update: chal­lenged) have failed to find a ‘char­ac­ter­is­tic’ atmos­pheric effect pre­dicted by the CO2 models.