Garnaut Review Economic Model

One Comment

  • KeithH wrote:

    Hav­ing spent some con­sid­er­able time in resource eco­nom­ic mod­el­ling, one has con­sid­er­able reser­va­tions about the abil­i­ty of mod­els to do any­thing oth­er than hope­ful­ly high­light the rel­a­tive impor­tance of key vari­ables but even then only in restric­tive cas­es. The com­plex­i­ty of cli­mate mod­els and the assump­tions regard­ing their con­struc­tion (bound­ary con­di­tions, ini­tial con­di­tions, non-lin­ear recur­sive rela­tion­ships between vari­ables, etc) com­bined with the prop­a­ga­tion of sta­tis­ti­cal errors makes the accu­ra­cy and val­ue of long term pro­jec­tions high­ly sus­pect.

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