Peter Gallagher

One Comment

• KeithH wrote:

  July 16, 2009 at 9:47 pm

  Hav­ing spent some con­sid­er­able time in resource eco­nomic mod­el­ling, one has con­sid­er­able reser­va­tions about the abil­ity of mod­els to do any­thing other than hope­fully high­light the rel­a­tive impor­tance of key vari­ables but even then only in restric­tive cases. The com­plex­ity of cli­mate mod­els and the assump­tions regard­ing their con­struc­tion (bound­ary con­di­tions, ini­tial con­di­tions, non-linear recur­sive rela­tion­ships between vari­ables, etc) com­bined with the prop­a­ga­tion of sta­tis­ti­cal errors makes the accu­racy and value of long term pro­jec­tions highly suspect.