Little evidence fires due to warming

In a review of the DECR report, Dr David Stock­well showed that the DECR results for rain­fall were sup­port­ed only by cli­mate mod­els that appear to have lit­tle skill in match­ing past rain­fall pat­terns let alone fore­cast­ing future pat­terns.

Fur­ther­more, the sum­ma­ry assess­ment in the DECR, quot­ed by the Depart­ment of Agriculture’s press release and ampli­fied by the Prime Min­is­ter, mis­lead­ing­ly present only the low­er tail (10th per­centile) of the rain­fall out­look devel­oped by the CSIRO and Aus­tralian Bureau of Mete­o­rol­o­gy for their report, Cli­mate Change in Aus­tralia. The mean results of those pro­jec­tions are a slight decrease in drought fre­quen­cy.

The sum­ma­ry of Chap­ter 5, Sec­tion 2.2 of that report says:

“The range of pre­cip­i­ta­tion change in 2030 allow­ing for mod­el to mod­el dif­fer­ences is large. Annu­al­ly aver­aged, the 10th to 90th per­centile range is around -10% to +5% in north­ern areas and -10% to lit­tle change in south­ern areas.” (empha­sis added)

David is pre­sent­ing his results in a series of posts at Niche Mod­el­ing.

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