Tag Archives: climate

New IPCC economic models

An arti­cle from Forbes Mag­a­zine on the IPCC’s lat­est “socio-eco­nom­ic mod­el­ling” of emis­sion and growth sce­nar­ios has attract­ed a lot of atten­tion because it claims the IPCC now shows that… The high­est eco­nom­ic growth mod­el leads to the low­est lev­el of emis­sions con­sid­ered. Less eco­nom­ic growth leads to high­er emis­sions. Extract from Forbes But the […]

Alarm or deny

How can it be that the same data on tem­per­a­ture trends and sea-lev­­els sup­ports such rad­i­cal­ly dif­fer­ent agen­das? Because the data, from time to time, does not strong­ly deter­mine any way of look­ing at the world. This obser­va­tion is as cogent today as it was when it first appeared; per­haps more so. The total­i­ty of […]

That’s exactly what “partisan” means

He reads, but can he speak Eng­lish? “There are prob­a­bly peo­ple now think­ing I’m par­ti­san for say­ing the sci­ence is in on cli­mate change. Well, I don’t think that’s par­ti­san. I think I can read Eng­lish. And I think the evi­dence is over­whelm­ing. I don’t think I will be par­ti­san. I don’t think you’re par­ti­san […]

One thousand ppm might be better

The Aus­tralian gov­ern­ment is bent on enact­ing a car­bon-emis­­sions tax that has no respon­si­ble jus­ti­fi­ca­tion oth­er than recent­ly re-hashed advice designed to jus­ti­fy an emis­sions tax. Lit­tle won­der, then, that polling shows vot­ers are strong­ly opposed to the tax, despite wide­spread their appar­ent con­vic­tion that the cli­mate is warm­ing and their accep­tance that warm­ing is […]

An eminent economist

After a dis­tin­guished career that has seen sig­nif­i­cant con­tri­bu­tions to pub­lic pol­i­cy for­mu­la­tion through more than three decades, Gar­naut finds him­self, at 64, more piv­otal than ever. As he grap­ples with his respon­si­bil­i­ty it is worth observ­ing he lacks one qual­i­ty also miss­ing in every oth­er econ­o­mist: infal­li­bil­i­ty” Extract from “A bril­liant career, but cer­tain­ly […]

Climate debate and climate policy

Bat­tles between ortho­doxy and non-con­­for­mi­­ty are nev­er won or lost. Only a naïve empiri­cist, or a reli­gion­ist who con­fi­dent­ly expects all to be made clear at the final trump—when the prizes are hand­ed out, truth is con­soled and error con­sumed by shame—could sup­pose oth­er­wise. There will be no “killer blow” to either the alarmist or […]

A salty climate “bonbon”

Wor­ried by Ross Garnaut’s claim in his revised review that sea lev­els are ris­ing faster than even the U.N. pre­dict­ed: “Ris­ing sea lev­els will con­tin­ue to increase the fre­quen­cy and inten­si­ty of coastal flood­ing events dur­ing the 21st cen­tu­ry. Obser­va­tions indi­cate that there­has been a sig­nif­i­cant increase in the fre­quen­cy of extreme high sea lev­els […]