Tag Archives: macroeconomics

Zoellick on China’s choices

A dis­cur­sive account by Greg Sheri­dan in The Aus­tralian of a con­ver­sa­tion with World Bank Pres­i­dent Robert Zoel­lick on, among oth­er things, China’s devel­op­ment conun­drum and the growth of emerg­ing economies as an anti­dote to pes­simism. Zoel­lick has a team of World Bank econ­o­mists work­ing close­ly with the Chi­nese lead­er­ship to help them move on […]

China faces an historic choice

Their cus­tomers’ economies tee­ter­ing on the edge of what may be a pro­longed peri­od of low-growth sig­nals that the time has arrived for Chi­na to accel­er­ate a long-forseen tran­si­tion in its own growth strat­e­gy; from export-demand dri­ven to domes­tic-demand dri­ven. But can the Bei­jing lead­er­ship do it? Now? Does it have the pol­i­cy flex­i­bil­i­ty that […]

The tough go shopping

Can you real­ly doubt that the Aus­tralian econ­o­my will resume its recent strong growth in a year or so? Are you wor­ried that the rapid accu­mu­la­tion of wealth in the vast, still-poor economies of Chi­na, India and cen­tral Asia might be about to sud­den­ly stop? Do you fear that Aus­tralian firms will nev­er again be […]

Standard and Poor’s reasons

It’s dif­fi­cult to argue with the Stan­dard & Poor’s assess­ment of the U.S. fis­cal out­look, or with their down­grade of the U.S. long-term sov­er­eign cred­it rat­ing: We low­ered our long-term rat­ing on the U.S. because we believe that the pro­longed con­tro­ver­sy over rais­ing the statu­to­ry debt ceil­ing and the relat­ed fis­cal pol­i­cy debate indi­cate that […]

Treasury’s advocacy of a CO2 tax

One thing on which I agree with Julia Gillard is the poor qual­i­ty of many jour­nal­ists’ analy­sis of her pro­pos­als. But when you cram jour­nal­ists with non­sense, you must expect some of them to regur­gi­tate it from time to time. “In the­o­ry, this is an inge­nious mod­el for adapt­ing our fos­sil fuel econ­o­my to glob­al […]

A quick primer on exchange policy

On their own, threats of sanc­tions seem unlike­ly to move Chi­na. A “trade war” — say, a mas­sive, bilat­er­al, retal­ia­to­ry hike in trade bar­ri­ers between the USA and Chi­na — is a nuclear option in an era of glob­al sup­ply and pro­duc­tion inte­gra­tion. Sure­ly it’s a bluff because, inthe incan­des­cent lyrics of Tom Lehrer: “We […]

Trade ‘imbalances’ are misleading

Alexan­dro Jara, the Deputy Direc­­tor-Gen­er­al of WTO “[R]elying on con­ven­tion­al trade sta­tis­tics gives a dis­tort­ed pic­ture of trade imbal­ances between coun­tries. As we saw when look­ing at the Chi­nese con­tent of the iPad, what counts is not the imbal­ances as mea­sured by gross val­ues of exports and imports, but how much val­ued added is embed­ded […]