Tag Archives: modeling

GE models and Grand Theft Auto

Mak­ing good eco­nom­ic pol­i­cy is nev­er a sim­ple mat­ter and is nev­er mere­ly a func­tion of eco­nom­ic under­stand­ing. But the art has been bad­ly served, recent­ly, by it tech­ni­cians. John Kay blames the self-lim­it­ing obses­sions of tech­ni­cal macro-eco­nom­ics and finan­cial analy­sis. For many peo­ple, deduc­tive rea­son­ing is the mark of sci­ence: induction—in which the argu­ment […]

New IPCC economic models

An arti­cle from Forbes Mag­a­zine on the IPCC’s lat­est “socio-eco­nom­ic mod­el­ling” of emis­sion and growth sce­nar­ios has attract­ed a lot of atten­tion because it claims the IPCC now shows that… The high­est eco­nom­ic growth mod­el leads to the low­est lev­el of emis­sions con­sid­ered. Less eco­nom­ic growth leads to high­er emis­sions. Extract from Forbes But the […]

Treasury modelling of a carbon tax

I teach my post-grad­u­ate stu­dents of inter­na­tion­al trade that the val­ue of eco­nom­ic mod­el­ling lies not in the pro­jec­tions —which are unre­li­able at best—but in the insight that build­ing mod­els pro­vides into how a trad­ing econ­o­my works. The exchanges between Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott in the past day or so about mod­el­ling “com­pen­sa­tion” for […]