Tag Archives: modeling

GE models and Grand Theft Auto

Making good economic policy is never a simple matter and is never merely a function of economic understanding. But the art has been badly served, recently, by it technicians. John Kay blames the self-limiting obsessions of technical macro-economics and financial analysis. For many people, deductive reasoning is the mark of science: induction—in which the argument […]

New IPCC economic models

An article from Forbes Magazine on the IPCC’s latest “socio-economic modelling” of emission and growth scenarios has attracted a lot of attention because it claims the IPCC now shows that… The highest economic growth model leads to the lowest level of emissions considered. Less economic growth leads to higher emissions. Extract from Forbes But the […]

Treasury modelling of a carbon tax

I teach my post-graduate students of international trade that the value of economic modelling lies not in the projections —which are unreliable at best—but in the insight that building models provides into how a trading economy works. The exchanges between Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott in the past day or so about modelling “compensation” for […]