Tag Archives: negotiations

Experts still optimists on Doha

Andrew Stol­er, Direc­tor of the Insti­tute for Inter­na­tion­al Trade at Ade­laide Uni­ver­si­ty and for­mer Deputy Direc­­tor-Gen­er­al of WTO has pub­lished the results of his most recent poll of expert opinion—including the anony­mous views of nego­tia­tors in Geneva—on the WTO Doha round (122 respon­dents). Here’s his sum­ma­ry: While experts remain in large part scep­ti­cal about the […]

ACTA Draft Treaty

It seems that the “near final” draft released a few days ago has been watered down a lot from ear­li­er leaked drafts. Expec­ta­tions man­age­ment? Or actu­al dis­agree­ments between the par­ties? Since ACTA was an attempt to nego­ti­ate an treaty on enforce­ment of prin­ci­ples cov­ered by the mul­ti­lat­er­al frame­work in secret and among a select group […]

Critical mass agreement vs the Doha Round

Projected welfare impacts of a CM agreement on agriculture

We’ll cut to the chase, shall we, in this fourth of my posts on mod­el­ing the impact of a ‘crit­i­cal mass’ agree­ment in agri­cul­ture? Click on the tags at the left-side or at the bot­tom of this arti­cle to find the ear­li­er posts.

A ‘crit­i­cal mass’ agree­ment among 38 coun­tries that account for 80 per­cent of world trade in the 30 top-trad­ed agri­cul­tur­al prod­ucts (all of them food) to elim­i­nate import duties on those prod­ucts would achieve about two thirds of the pro­ject­ed val­ue of the glob­al Doha agree­ment on agri­cul­ture. If the mem­bers of the CM elim­i­nat­ed pro­duc­tion and export sub­si­dies, too (turns out, they won’t have much choice) the glob­al gains would be a third as much again as those pro­ject­ed for the Doha agree­ment.

Click the thumb­nail to see the results in a table. A brief expla­na­tion of the table: the CM-35 sce­nario assumes that 3 of the poten­tial mem­bers of the crit­i­cal mass agree­ment decide not to join. They are Chi­na, India and Indone­sia. As you can see the pro­ject­ed ‘sta­t­ic’ glob­al wel­fare impact is actu­al­ly slight­ly larg­er if they stand-back because Chi­na and India (espe­cial­ly) would ben­e­fit from the oppor­tu­ni­ty to ‘free ride’ on the open mar­kets of the oth­er 35 coun­tries.

What if WTO forgot about the rules?

If you can’t agree on what to do, then don’t agree. Just, um… do it™.

This—believe it or not— is the lat­est idea from the bored squad of WTO del­e­gates who find them­selves with noth­ing much to nego­ti­ate while trade is in an unprece­dent­ed slump and the Doha Round lies on a slab in the cool room.

Their thinking—which they test­ed with new US Trade Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Kirk dur­ing his recent vis­it to Geneva—apparently goes like this:

The Hong Kong beauty parade

< p> I had a meet­ing yes­ter­day with a senior EC Com­mis­sion offi­cial

Must do list for agriculture negotiations

Next week will see the first seri­ous attempt by WTO offi­cials and cab­i­net-lev­­el nego­tia­tors to draft deci­sions by the Hong Kong Min­is­te­r­i­al Con­fer­ence. Agri­cul­ture remains a lynch-pin: as indi­cat­ed by the reports that the Five Inter­est­ed Par­ties (FIPS) will meet in Lon­don to try to bridge dif­fer­ences face-to-face that they have already spelled out over […]

Testing le d’fi fran’ais on Agriculture

Accord­ing to press reports Mr Chirac told the EU Sum­mit meet­ing in Hamp­ton Court, Eng­land, that France would ‘veto’ a Doha round agree­ment on Agri­cul­ture that required cuts in sup­port or pro­tec­tion greater than those con­tained in the EU’s 2003 deci­sion on future Com­mon Agri­cul­ture Pol­i­cy (CAP) reforms. Could he do that? Well … the […]