Andrew Stoler, Director of the Institute for International Trade at Adelaide University and former Deputy Director-General of WTO has published the results of his most recent poll of expert opinion—including the anonymous views of negotiators in Geneva—on the WTO Doha round (122 respondents). Here’s his summary: While experts remain in large part sceptical about the […]
It seems that the “near final” draft released a few days ago has been watered down a lot from earlier leaked drafts. Expectations management? Or actual disagreements between the parties? Since ACTA was an attempt to negotiate an treaty on enforcement of principles covered by the multilateral framework in secret and among a select group […]
We’ll cut to the chase, shall we, in this fourth of my posts on modeling the impact of a ‘critical mass’ agreement in agriculture? Click on the tags at the left-side or at the bottom of this article to find the earlier posts.
A ‘critical mass’ agreement among 38 countries that account for 80 percent of world trade in the 30 top-traded agricultural products (all of them food) to eliminate import duties on those products would achieve about two thirds of the projected value of the global Doha agreement on agriculture. If the members of the CM eliminated production and export subsidies, too (turns out, they won’t have much choice) the global gains would be a third as much again as those projected for the Doha agreement.
Click the thumbnail to see the results in a table. A brief explanation of the table: the CM-35 scenario assumes that 3 of the potential members of the critical mass agreement decide not to join. They are China, India and Indonesia. As you can see the projected ‘static’ global welfare impact is actually slightly larger if they stand-back because China and India (especially) would benefit from the opportunity to ‘free ride’ on the open markets of the other 35 countries.
If you can’t agree on what to do, then don’t agree. Just, um… do it™.
This—believe it or not— is the latest idea from the bored squad of WTO delegates who find themselves with nothing much to negotiate while trade is in an unprecedented slump and the Doha Round lies on a slab in the cool room.
Their thinking—which they tested with new US Trade Representative Ron Kirk during his recent visit to Geneva—apparently goes like this:
< p> I had a meeting yesterday with a senior EC Commission official
Next week will see the first serious attempt by WTO officials and cabinet-level negotiators to draft decisions by the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference. Agriculture remains a lynch-pin: as indicated by the reports that the Five Interested Parties (FIPS) will meet in London to try to bridge differences face-to-face that they have already spelled out over […]
According to press reports Mr Chirac told the EU Summit meeting in Hampton Court, England, that France would ‘veto’ a Doha round agreement on Agriculture that required cuts in support or protection greater than those contained in the EU’s 2003 decision on future Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) reforms. Could he do that? Well … the […]