Tag Archives: temperature

Academy of alarm

What does the Aus­tralian Acad­e­my of sci­ence think their role should be? To inform or to fright­en? To elu­ci­date pub­lic pol­i­cy issues from a sci­en­tif­ic view­point? Or to indulge them­selves in scare­mon­ger­ing so unsup­port­ed by facts that it bor­ders on irre­spon­si­ble? Their lat­est cli­­mate-alarm pam­phlet con­tains appalling rub­bish, includ­ing claims that the world will warm […]

Century trends in Victorian temperatures

Mean maximum temperatures, January, rural Victoria

There are a dozen or so rur­al Vic­to­ri­an weath­er sta­tions, of the 255 list­ed as report­ing max­i­mum tem­per­a­ture data to the Aus­tralian Bureau of Mete­o­rol­o­gy, that have records stretch­ing back to years before 1900. I have found them by skim­ming through the list­ings on this page at the BOM web­site. It has a help­ful graph­ic that dynam­i­cal­ly dis­plays the record length.

I thought it might be inter­est­ing to see the trend of max­i­mum tem­per­a­tures in these rur­al loca­tions. The graph­ic (click the thumb­nail) shows that in eight of these twelve sites, includ­ing one NSW site—Deniliquin, almost on the Vic­to­ri­an border—the tem­per­a­ture trend is neg­a­tive or flat. The trend esti­mate is a sim­ple, lin­ear least-squares trend over the longest peri­od avail­able in each record with 1-sig­ma bands as indi­cat­ed. The idea for this exper­i­ment came from a post at the Car­bon-Sense Coali­tion web­site.

Temperatures for June in Victoria

Temperature anomalies for June, 1950 - 2009

June 2009 was not as warm as June 2008, but still 0.8° C above the aver­age for 1961–1990, accord­ing to the Aus­tralian Bureau of Mete­o­rol­o­gy. There have been ten hot­ter Junes since 1950.

Temperatures for May in Victoria

Temperature anomalies in Victoria, May

Tem­per­a­tures in May 2009 were 0.52° C above the his­tor­i­cal aver­age.

U.S. and Global Temperatures: a correction

Corrected GISS record shows 1934 as the hottest year

Dr Gavin Schmidt, a cli­mate mod­el­er at NASA and a prin­ci­pal author of the Real Cli­mate weblog, has emailed me to point out an error (mine) in my review of Ian Plimer’s Heav­en + Earth.

I said that I had learned from Ian Plimer that NASA had reversed it’s claim that the ten years fol­low­ing 1995 were the hottest ten years of the cen­tu­ry when Steven McIn­tyre showed that the record belonged to 1934. But, as Dr Schmidt points out, 1934 was the hottest year in the GISS records only for the Unit­ed States, not in the glob­al GISS records. He goes on to accuse Prof. Plimer of ‘lying’ to his read­ers about this, and oth­er, mat­ters.

I am grate­ful to Dr Schmidt for point­ing out this error, which I have cor­rect­ed. But I still share Ian Plimer’s amply-doc­u­ment­ed con­clu­sion that there is no rea­son for alarm about the slight warm­ing that undoubt­ed­ly took place over a fifty year peri­od from the 1940s.

How bad is polar ice loss?

Arctic sea ice extent (daily image)Antarctic sea ice extent (daily image)

News reports every­where are pick­ing up the theme of ‘alarm’ over the extent of ice cov­er at the poles.

‘What we’re see­ing is very dra­mat­ic,’ said Andrew Flem­ing, remote sens­ing man­ag­er at the British Antarc­tic Sur­vey. ‘It’s very wor­ry­ing.’ Sci­en­tists believed the effects were linked to the ‘very strong warm­ing’ at the poles, he said. The Antarc­tic penin­su­la has warmed by more than 3ºC in the past 50 years. ‘That’s a stag­ger­ing rate of warm­ing, and it’s still going up,’ said Mr Flem­ing.” Extract from a report in today’s Finan­cial Times

But, as is often the case, the sto­ry looks much less alarm­ing when you look at the data for your­self.

A climate rebuttal

More than 100 scientists reject the climate-alarm call

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p>A strong mes­sage with <a href=“http://climatesci.org/2009/03/31/open-letter-by-the-cato-institute-on-climate-science/” title=“Climate Sci­ence: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News