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  • One of the main points I get from the paper is how mar­gin­al the trends are.  The tem­per­a­tures of the last 10 years are only just out­side the con­fi­dence inter­val, recent tem­per­a­tures are now below them again.  Also this par­tic­u­lar analy­sis has a foot­note, to the effect that “they do not incor­po­rate esti­ma­tion uncer­tain­ty.”  I don’t know much incor­po­ra­tion of this uncer­tain­ty would increase the con­fi­dence inter­val, but it wouldn’t take much to include all tem­per­a­tures with­in the lim­its.

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