Transition to a non-carbon economy

The his­tor­i­cal ver­dict is unas­sail­able: because of the req­ui­site tech­ni­cal and infra­struc­tur­al imper­a­tives and because of numer­ous (and often entire­ly unfore­seen) socio-eco­nom­ic adjust­ments, ener­gy tran­si­tions in large economies and on a glob­al scale are inher­ent­ly pro­tract­ed affairs. That is why, bar­ring some extra­or­di­nary com­mit­ments and actions, none of the promis­es for great­ly accel­er­at­ed ener­gy tran­si­tions will be real­ized, and dur­ing the next decade none of the new ener­gy sources and prime movers will make a major dif­fer­ence by cap­tur­ing 20 per­cent to 25 per­cent of its respec­tive mar­ket. A world with­out fos­sil fuel com­bus­tion is high­ly desir­able and, to be opti­mistic, our col­lec­tive deter­mi­na­tion, com­mit­ment, and per­sis­tence could accel­er­ate its arrival—but get­ting there will demand not only high cost but also con­sid­er­able patience: com­ing ener­gy tran­si­tions will unfold across decades, not years.”  The Amer­i­can

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