The below is an off-site archive of all tweets posted by @pwgallagher ever

June 2016

A #TTIP deal with EU still looks the best hope for cracking (or will it be “managing”?) some US services barriers::https://t.co/bJIbdg56bP

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… And the original of Mme Le Pen’s Op Ed (but the translation is impeccable)::https://t.co/SbXoozjkpD

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That quote from Marine Le Pen in the NYT::https://t.co/4TzvY0LHNW

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“More and more the destiny of the EU resembles the destiny of the Soviet Union, which died from its own contradictions”: Marine Le Pen.

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Since 1919, USA has expected UK to do its bidding in Europe. Despite recriminations, this has never worked well. https://t.co/Uz0sO4fh4q

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BTW, SkyData online poll backs this. They show just 36% of 18-24 y.o. voted on #Brexit::https://t.co/zDXoT7Zcyk https://t.co/i6R8ZM2iWM

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Seems to me there is insufficient data to reach any strong conclusions about age-preference for or .

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There is no official data on UK voting by age. Academic studies show <52% of eligible 18-24 y.o. voted in 2010::https://t.co/O5AzNXMSUz

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Claim baby-boomers trashed millennials’ future in #Brexit starts with this ONLINE poll taken a week BEFORE the vote:https://t.co/3jbx8dqFtC

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#Brexit demographic scatter-plots as social sneers. These correlations (382 aggregate data pts) cd easily mislead::https://t.co/vFuo55ND0F

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@sdonnan @MehreenKhn It means they’re reading the newspapers and Twitter like everyone else. The Octonauts are probably better at ‘rescue’.

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“Wider still and wider may thy bounds be set…”

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auslibdems Looks like time for a free trade agreement with the UK.

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 1:50 PM, Jun 24th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Flat trade growth is not an emergency. Prices are down; that may be a disturbing signal but also a great incentive (unless govts muck it up)

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Still, these are merch. trade only. Services (=18% of AU volumes) boosted momentum of total ex. vols & vals in 2015 https://t.co/whoSdVkQv5

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mattwridley Rational Optimist: A bright global future for Britain bit.ly/28R1mam

via twitterfeed (retweeted on 9:57 AM, Jun 22nd, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

UK must choose either to & grasp own destiny or forever “offside” in EU as Euro-states move to some form of political Union.

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No monetary union survives without the controls & legitimacy of political Union (as Delors knew). UK should be voting on or

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We’ve heard a great deal about the riskiness of thve case (IMF, FT, Times, Guardian) but little about the biggest risk oin …

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RT @peraltenberg: Important piece by @SimonEvenett Hufbauer and Bhatia on changing corporate strategy in the face of #protectionism. https:…

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A balanced guide to divergent economic views of #Brexit. It’s more about the competing models than the results::https://t.co/K8WqM1Gd7a

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Summer 2016 cd. be equally fraught, but that summer trans-Atlantic aviation, talkies & television first appeared. Maybe R. Gordon is right.

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Just finished Bill Bryson“s ”One Summer: America 1927″. Great fun. Fabulous pageant. Still, more Bosch than Breughel.

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@leemakiyama True, NZ bit several bullets. I don’t know what posit GBR will do but the IMF analogy (NZ in ‘70s ~ GBR now) is silly.

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If GBR votes Thurs to , will the EU thank them? Hah! Are you kidding? They’ll be punished at every turn “pour encourager les autres…”

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RT @alanbeattie: That ruthless Cartesian logic again. https://t.co/Igf5GO6DrQ

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Could this be a trade deal both candidates and Congress might actually like!? https://t.co/r1qRUjJ83f

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EconDevlpmt @pwgallagher And also NZ really only exported one thing back then. Hard to compare with UK today

via Twitter for iPhone (retweeted on 7:36 AM, Jun 19th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

snlester I don’t know if the UK will leave the EU, but if it does, the UK/US should quickly negotiate a trade deal to reduce/eliminate tariffs.

via TweetDeck (retweeted on 6:55 AM, Jun 19th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

The IMF study explicitly denies its ‘scenarios’ quantitatively robust. Compaexit to NZ loss of UK preferences in late 1970s!

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@BaldwinRE Decades, it’s true. But it was new technology in early 1980s. Much faster — and less costly — now.

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Not on this, Brian. AU already has one RTA incl. VN (AAFTA) and one still to come (TPP). UK a top investor, market. https://t.co/qZIxNTlP6o

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AU should propose an FTA with GBR on the same terms as NZ (trade, investment, competition, labor movement) to begin the day after

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“The Six Best Reasons to Vote #Leave” (none of them is ‘immigration’)::https://t.co/QHIFheqiMY

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RBAInfo Speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Economic), at the Economic Society of Australia Lunch, Brisbane - goo.gl/EbuRis

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McCloskey on the minimum wage as class/race aggression. Sharp, humane, maybe a bit over the top::https://t.co/jVHtGuHMYL

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Good grief! “Transport for London will no longer accept ads that could damage people’s confidence in their bodies”::https://t.co/T58UZPLQIj

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Claiming he offers ‘security’ ahead of the #Brexit decision, Turnbull adopts the buffoonery of a media shock-tart::https://t.co/bUmjYcRvwG

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Another strong “autonomy” argument for the #Leave side of #Brexit. Notes the risks for UK of Eurozone consolidation::https://t.co/rkk8b4nnOm

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@ozprodcom “Digital disruption: what do governments need to do?” Answer: cut red tape, improve services, back off::https://t.co/ecQhnLuznP

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Strong case for #Brexit from (it seems) a ‘progressive’ who feels betrayed by EU. Too pessimistic on the UK econ?::https://t.co/LY1V7V57no

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RT @kjhealy: Though falling for years, the US assault death rate is far higher than most OECD countries. https://t.co/lRuDn8gQaH https://t.…

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There’s been a decades-long decline in incidence of (age adj.) US assault deaths. Why the rapid rise in the ’60s? https://t.co/5ZcNqkWKbK

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[Pay-walled] Still, that summary slide misleads. Est. is GDP, not household income, for one of 3 alt. ‘scenarios’. https://t.co/aXL2VqTLlU

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Cameron #Brexit campaign “a textbook case of disgraceful fearmongering”::https://t.co/UpCY9NmR80

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Plus sceptiques que les Britanniques sur l’UE. Salut La France!::https://t.co/EnPNNdMUfS

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RT @snlester: You could actually do it with one free trade agreement that covered everyone. https://t.co/f6dtZUmreU

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Oops… “ghoulish”

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Media stories about themselves are often obnoxious but this (about the NYT death watch for M’d. Ali) is goulish::https://t.co/zdenmjAyPg?

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Free trade after #Brexit? Realists will say: “Minford’s right but… our future is a railway, history lays the track”::https://t.co/b7SpiUOmS0

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For #greatstagnation fans: micro-thin meta-lenses that resolve to 400μm, chip-fabrication. A disruption bomb?::https://t.co/sOH1iKAG7V

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RT @IanaDreyer: 3/ Idea of clean break, and no haggling w partners just fanciful. #yourmeddlingforeigner https://t.co/Jjtf4T7L69

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RT @CoppetainPU: @WTODGAZEVEDO said UK regaining #WTO status post-#Brexit would be complex. What did he mean? Is he right? Depends … https:…

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WTO has nothing to say on the #Brexit decision. These legal tangles (overblown IMO) are no guide to good policy::https://t.co/udo50dSFQO

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Proof of an over-coddled industry: CEO’s that cite (executive) behavior and ‘cultural values’ as top priorities::https://t.co/nJl8yF6hbo

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That link to @CoppetainPU‘s article oit in Agra Europe should have beetinyurl.com/jd3yzwdtp

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✔️ Expert review by @CoppetainPU of the difficulties of post-#Brexit disentanglement of UK’s EU/WTO obligations::https://t.co/p7yV3XI33o

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(George Osborne’s) UK Treasury’s advocacy documentsexit make curious assumptions: eg. Bank Of England sits on its hands.

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A decision’s gain/loss is +/- from ‘no change’ baseline. The crucial #remain ’baseline’ not detailed in HM Tsy docs::https://t.co/nhhMd8HrMw

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I’m skeptcial oit econ. projections. Gain/loss depends crucially on choice of ‘counterfactual ’; often a much less elaborate guess.

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Cute & quick. Still, seems to be based on gross final merch. exports (COMTRADE) so country magnitudes are illusory. https://t.co/mIvQ8pFD3K

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Is it true 70% of GDP=services but 80% of trade=merchandise? No! GDP=value added. On VA basis trade is >50% services:https://t.co/knYelzQ0ol

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Former Appellate Body Members object to US shenanigans on reappointments (more politely than I would)::https://t.co/lkJp1H1Zgn

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And quite a few traded services… https://t.co/leWzy69v4D

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BTW(2) UK’s flirtation w/ EEC & conflicting deGaulle, Kennedy agendas made high drama. Fm my history of @iccwbo::https://t.co/TTwlFiFkVt

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BTW, de Gaulle’s “Non!” to UK in his Jan ‘63 press conf. is unmissable. Magisterial, orotund, devious [see ~26’30″]::https://t.co/vYmbrrwYOL

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…but EU cleaves to Schuman-Delors social democracy; a program for “stability” tarnished by corporatism, market rigging & entitlement

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De Gaulle argued UK did not fit in EEC for cultural reasons. Anglo preferences are libertarian, laissez-faire; UK alliances global…

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CHN firms buying ‘defensive’ patents perpetuates this rotten mess. Patent threats a bar to innovation, trade, FDI https://t.co/fUmepI14Tn

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Rod Abbott is an expert on this. I’m more optimistic about likely post #Brexit deals b/c of existing links. Still…
https://t.co/uBYGARorfH

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And how does that usually work out work out? 😏 https://t.co/d6Smci3jC6

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SimonEvenett @pwgallagher Not quite. The Brexit choice is alas between living next door or remaining married but sleeping in separate bedrooms

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 2:44 PM, Jun 1st, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Both sides put choice as ‘in or out’ but it’s not that stark. Question is: would you rather share a (big) bed, or live next door?

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goes to a poll b/c there are no experts on choosing a future. Pooh-bahs who claim to know the *answer* know mostly their *interest*.

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I have followed EC/EU achievements & absurdities since late 1970s from AU, Washington, Geneva & Brussels. Result is I’m a lukewarve-r

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Foreigners have little title to an opinion on . But gratuitous advice is the currency of . So what the heck…

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“It’s high time to take trump seriously” (without merely sneering)::https://t.co/P5vXRac07b

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