The below is an off-site archive of all tweets posted by @pwgallagher ever

June 2016

A deal with EU still looks the best hope for cracking (or will it be “managing”?) some US services barriers::trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…

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… And the original of Mme Le Pen’s Op Ed (but the translation is impeccable)nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opi…pD

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That quote from Marine Le Pen in the NYT::nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opi…

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“More and more the destiny of the EU resembles the destiny of the Soviet Union, which died from its own contradictions”: Marine Le Pen.

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Since 1919, USA has expected UK to do its bidding in Europe. Despite recriminations, this has never worked well. twitter.com/ABC/status/746…

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BTW, SkyData online poll backs this. They show just 36% of 18-24 y.o. voted on ::twitter.com/SkyData/status… twitter.com/pwgallagher/st…

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Seems to me there is insufficient data to reach any strong conclusions about age-preference for or .

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There is no official data on UK voting by age. Academic studies show <52% of eligible 18-24 y.o. voted in 2010::researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01…

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Claim baby-boomers trashed millennials’ future in starts with this ONLINE poll taken a week BEFORE the vote:graphics.wsj.com/brexit-whos-vo…

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demographic scatter-plots as social sneers. These correlations (382 aggregate data pts) cd easily mislead::blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06…

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@sdonnan @MehreenKhn It means they’re reading the newspapers and Twitter like everyone else. The Octonauts are probably better at ‘rescue’.

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“Wider still and wider may thy bounds be set…”

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auslibdems Looks like time for a free trade agreement with the UK.

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 1:50 PM, Jun 24th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Flat trade growth is not an emergency. Prices are down; that may be a disturbing signal but also a great incentive (unless govts muck it up)

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Still, these are merch. trade only. Services (=18% of AU volumes) boosted momentum of total ex. vols & vals in 2015 twitter.com/sdonnan/status…

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mattwridley Rational Optimist: A bright global future for Britain bit.ly/28R1mam

via twitterfeed (retweeted on 9:57 AM, Jun 22nd, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

UK must choose either to & grasp own destiny or forever “offside” in EU as Euro-states move to some form of political Union.

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No monetary union survives without the controls & legitimacy of political Union (as Delors knew). UK should be voting on or

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We’ve heard a great deal about the riskiness of the case (IMF, FT, Times, Guardian) but little about the biggest risk of

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peraltenberg Important piece by @SimonEvenett Hufbauer and Bhatia on changing corporate strategy in the face of . voxeu.org/article/why-ge…

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SincDavidson Will Brexit be exempt from the Iron Law? ironlawofregulation.com/current-issues… via @wordpressdotcom

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A balanced guide to divergent economic views of . It’s more about the competing models than the results::economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economi…

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Summer 2016 cd. be equally fraught, but that summer trans-Atlantic aviation, talkies & television first appeared. Maybe R. Gordon is right.

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Just finished Bill Bryson”s “One Summer: America 1927″. Great fun. Fabulous pageant. Still, more Bosch than Breughel.

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@leemakiyama True, NZ bit several bullets. I don’t know what post GBR will do but the IMF analogy (NZ in ’70s ~ GBR now) is silly.

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If GBR votes Thurs to , will the EU thank them? Hah! Are you kidding? They’ll be punished at every turn “pour encourager les autres…”

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alanbeattie That ruthless Cartesian logic again. twitter.com/nickkounis/sta…

via Twitter for iPhone (retweeted on 7:45 PM, Jun 19th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Could this be a trade deal both candidates and Congress might actually like!? twitter.com/snlester/statu…

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EconDevlpmt @pwgallagher And also NZ really only exported one thing back then. Hard to compare with UK today

via Twitter for iPhone (retweeted on 7:36 AM, Jun 19th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

snlester I don’t know if the UK will leave the EU, but if it does, the UK/US should quickly negotiate a trade deal to reduce/eliminate tariffs.

via TweetDeck (retweeted on 6:55 AM, Jun 19th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

The IMF study explicitly denies its ‘scenarios’ quantitatively robust. Compares to NZ loss of UK preferences in late 1970s!

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@BaldwinRE Decades, it’s true. But it was new technology in early 1980s. Much faster — and less costly — now.

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Not on this, Brian. AU already has one RTA incl. VN (AAFTA) and one still to come (TPP). UK a top investor, market. twitter.com/brianmlucey/st…

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AU should propose an FTA with GBR on the same terms as NZ (trade, investment, competition, labor movement) to begin the day after

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“The Six Best Reasons to Vote ” (none of them is ‘immigration’)::spectator.co.uk/2016/06/six-be…

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RBAInfo Speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Economic), at the Economic Society of Australia Lunch, Brisbane - goo.gl/EbuRis

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 2:00 PM, Jun 16th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

McCloskey on the minimum wage as class/race aggression. Sharp, humane, maybe a bit over the top::reason.com/archives/2016/…

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Good grief! “Transport for London will no longer accept ads that could damage people’s confidence in their bodies”::ft.com/cms/s/0/abd9fb…

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Claiming he offers ‘security’ ahead of the decision, Turnbull adopts the buffoonery of a media shock-tart::ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a…

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Another strong “autonomy” argument for the side of . Notes the risks for UK of Eurozone consolidation::blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit…

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@ozprodcom “Digital disruption: what do governments need to do?” Answer: cut red tape, improve services, back off::pc.gov.au/research/compl…

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Strong case for from (it seems) a ‘progressive’ who feels betrayed by EU. Too pessimistic on the UK econ?::telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/…

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kjhealy Though falling for years, the US assault death rate is far higher than most OECD countries. kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/… pic.twitter.com/MjHlfdeZhb

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 9:03 AM, Jun 13th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

There’s been a decades-long decline in incidence of (age adj.) US assault deaths. Why the rapid rise in the ’60s? twitter.com/kjhealy/status…

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BaldwinRE A global portrait of trade finance: New data
voxeu.org/article/trade-… pic.twitter.com/uLFRnHKwRH

via Twitter for iPhone (retweeted on 9:21 AM, Jun 12th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

[Pay-walled] Still, that summary slide misleads. Est. is GDP, not household income, for one of 3 alt. ‘scenarios’. twitter.com/CoppetainPU/st…

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HenryErgas How Clinton got sideswiped left theaustralian.com.au/opinion/column…

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 9:00 AM, Jun 11th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Cameron campaign “a textbook case of disgraceful fearmongering”::theaustralian.com.au/opinion/column…

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Plus sceptiques que les Britanniques sur l’UE. Salut La France!::pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/eur…

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snlester You could actually do it with one free trade agreement that covered everyone. twitter.com/theLizzyKay/st…

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Oops… “ghoulish”

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Media stories about themselves are often obnoxious but this (about the NYT death watch for M’d. Ali) is goulish::nytimes.com/2016/06/07/ins…?

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Free trade after ? Realists will say: “Minford’s right but… our future is a railway, history lays the track”iea.org.uk/in-the-media/p…S0

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Amusing but misleading. Firms are consumers, too: look here (trademap.org) twitter.com/PIIE/status/74… pic.twitter.com/hp4eatF0A4

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For fans: micro-thin meta-lenses that resolve to 400μm, chip-fabrication. A disruption bomb?::dpreview.com/news/121925902…

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IanaDreyer 3/ Idea of clean break, and no haggling w partners just fanciful. twitter.com/pwgallagher/st…

via Twitter for Android (retweeted on 8:46 AM, Jun 8th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

CoppetainPU @WTODGAZEVEDO said UK regaining status post- would be complex. What did he mean? Is he right? Depends ..tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/06/07/uk-…GQ

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 7:06 AM, Jun 8th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Halsrethink Gallagher is quite correct. WTO irrelevant. Trade legal technicalities fixable.Real issue sovereignty twitter.com/pwgallagher/st…

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 9:41 AM, Jun 7th, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

WTO has nothing to say on the decision. These legal tangles (overblown IMO) are no guide to good policy::euronews.com/business-newsw…

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Proof of an over-coddled industry: CEO’s that cite (executive) behavior and ‘cultural values’ as top priorities::theaustralian.com.au/business/opini…

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That link to @CoppetainPU’s article on in Agra Europe should have been tinyurl.com/jd3yzwd

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✔️ Expert review by @CoppetainPU of the difficulties of post- disentanglement of UK’s EU/WTO obligations::agra-net.com/agra/agra-euro…

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(George Osborne’s) UK Treasury’s advocacy documents on make curious assumptions: eg. Bank Of England sits on its hands.

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A decision’s gain/loss is +/- from ‘no change’ baseline. The crucial ‘baseline’ not detailed in HM Tsy docs::gov.uk/government/upl…

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I’m skeptcial of econ. projections. Gain/loss depends crucially on choice of ‘counterfactual ‘; often a much less elaborate guess.

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Cute & quick. Still, seems to be based on gross final merch. exports (COMTRADE) so country magnitudes are illusory. twitter.com/paragkhanna/st…

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Is it true 70% of GDP=services but 80% of trade=merchandise? No! GDP=value added. On VA basis trade is >50% services:oecd.org/industry/ind/m…

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Former Appellate Body Members object to US shenanigans on reappointments (more politely than I would)::sielnet.org/resources/Docu…

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BTW(2) UK’s flirtation w/ EEC & conflicting deGaulle, Kennedy agendas made high drama. Fm my history of @iccwbo::dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5517445/DeGa…

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BTW, de Gaulle’s “Non!” to UK in his Jan ’63 press conf. is unmissable. Magisterial, orotund, devious [see ~26’30″]::fresques.ina.fr/de-gaulle/fich…

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…but EU cleaves to Schuman-Delors social democracy; a program for “stability” tarnished by corporatism, market rigging & entitlement

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De Gaulle argued UK did not fit in EEC for cultural reasons. Anglo preferences are libertarian, laissez-faire; UK alliances global…

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CHN firms buying ‘defensive’ patents perpetuates this rotten mess. Patent threats a bar to innovation, trade, FDI ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9…

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Rod Abbott is an expert on this. I’m more optimistic about likely post deals b/c of existing links. Still..project-syndicate.org/commentary/bre…fH

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And how does that usually work out work out? 😏 twitter.com/SimonEvenett/s…

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SimonEvenett @pwgallagher Not quite. The Brexit choice is alas between living next door or remaining married but sleeping in separate bedrooms

via Twitter Web Client (retweeted on 2:44 PM, Jun 1st, 2016 via Tweetbot for iΟS)

Both sides put choice as ‘in or out’ but it’s not that stark. Question is: would you rather share a (big) bed, or live next door?

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goes to a poll b/c there are no experts on choosing a future. Pooh-bahs who claim to know the *answer* know mostly their *interest*.

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I have followed EC/EU achievements & absurdities since late 1970s from AU, Washington, Geneva & Brussels. Result is I’m a lukewarm -r

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Foreigners have little title to an opinion on . But gratuitous advice is the currency of . So what the heck…

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“It’s high time to take trump seriously” (without merely sneering)::theaustralian.com.au/opinion/column…

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