@BillWaters7 @rockford92584 @scottlincicome @DanaPerino @dikenson As @mattwridley argues, lack of trade likely did for Tasmanian aborignls.
@BillWaters7 @rockford92584 @scottlincicome @DanaPerino @dikenson Nope! AU aboriginals traded flints, pigments over ’00s kms millennia ago.
dikenson Ok, just for kicks, what’s @clydeprestowitz warning re trade w Asia this time, LOL? thecipherbrief.com/article/asia/g… Bilateral deficits? Hahahahahaha
Kevin Rudd is unsuited to a senior role (anywhere). But Turnbull comes off badly; demonstrates he is a weather-vane::theaustralian.com.au/national-affai…
Unlike gains from trade, fiscal prudence is easy to explain. But AU govts fail anyway: “…debt control worst in G20”theaustralian.com.au/business/econo…eN
Forests of stalled windmills on the Deccan plateau: bet Indians wish someone had halted those subsidies, too. twitter.com/FITTNews/statu…
If the US anoints Clinton, S Lael Brainard wd. be a top USTR; her papers on trade theory are on my class lists. twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/st…
Australians pay 2x over to deliver $7.5bn in annual “industry assistance” mostly to manufacturing. Very dumb::pc.gov.au/research/ongoi…
Speculation: with right prodn. technologies MNEs cd. replace all intra-idy. horiz. x-border goods trade w/ services. twitter.com/McKinsey/statu…
1. Tow Brunei inside the 9-Dash Line
2. Extend “One Belt, One Road” to London
3. Customs Union with JPN, TWN, KOR twitter.com/SimonEvenett/s…
Mfg management as TFP boosting tech. AU mfg. rates highly: thanks to MNEs? (h/t @tylercowen):nber.org/papers/w22327.… pic.twitter.com/lcUQ8ENltM
Great! But the graphics (and tables)… Yuk! Imprecise, schlock-yedwardtufte.com/tufte/books_vd…8twitter.com/wto/status/756…Dpic.twitter.com/RHXc60Wokrkr
But in the Big Rock Candy Mountain everyone can have a Massive Trade Deficit! (Life’s a banana lounge with MTDs!):worldtradelaw.typepad.com/ielpblog/2016/…
Mark Thirlwell (AUSTRADE) has a good summary of the potenial impact of #Brexit on AU - more pessimistic than mine::austrade.gov.au/ArticleDocumen…
One new post on Brexit (petergallagher.com.au/index.php/site…) and a draft from a year ago on trade blocs and WTO now published (petergallagher.com.au/index.php/site…)
SimonEvenett What matters more 4 UK living standards? Openness+level playing field at home or trade deals abroad? My take ictsd.org/opinion/are-tr…
@SimonEvenett One reason: FTAs are most effective as signalling abt own future policy directions. Put a couple of banners in place, soon.
Excellent advice for managing a big challenge. I’m a bit more optimistic abt CHN. KOR wd also be high on my list. twitter.com/snlester/statu…
“The Softbank-ARM deal is a reminder that … Britain is still an attractive destination for global capital”wsj.com/articles/armed…w6
@SimonEvenett @research_trade Guess I’m out of date. Was it not CTS/IDB at one stage? Sure that’s what Friedrich told me (also in docs).
@paul1kirby @SimonEvenett Um… Themselves?
@TradeNewsCentre @SimonEvenett “Applied” duties may be lower b/c of preferences or other reasons e.g. by-law (they often are lower).
@TradeNewsCentre Seems to be just the math of “TPP module”. In the MacMap database “MFN” <- WTO-IDB/CTS & “Applied” <- customs pubs.
That’s NOT what MacMap data shows. “Applied” ≠ (“MFN” minus preferences). These are data from different sources. twitter.com/TradeNewsCentr…
snlester US-AUS FTA took about 1 year to 18 mos.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia–United_States_Free_Trade_Agreementwitter.com/stephenkb/stat…tC
Doesn’t seem to me likely to duplicate. Not like, e.g., #TPP & AUSFTA. But suppose it were, so what? twitter.com/PDSutherlandUN…
This is the heart of the matter. All IP is created by govt for social good and may be restricted for same reason. twitter.com/WorldTradeLaw/…
@StephenJacobi @snlester I’m optimistic. A big break like #Brexit sometimes lifts trade+investmt energy; hard choices are, briefly, easier.
@snlester has great suggestions for UK trade agreements program. Keep it simple, move quickly, be bold::cato.org/publications/c…
AU Stats Bureau hides import data on 2728 items b/c someone asked!! Guns, steel, laptops, coffee-extract(!), nuts…abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.…TY
Some data on roots, scale of racial killings in USA from @HenryErgas [theaustralian.com.au/opinion/column…] & @m_sendhil NYT [nytimes.com/2015/10/18/ups…]
“Why the E.U. Had It Coming… This decades-old spell is set to break.” Disillusion beyond the UKmobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/10/opi…F6
For Howard in AU too it was/is about the alliance. Was 2004 AUSFTA his reward for joining this unnecessary disaster? twitter.com/alanbeattie/st…
SimonEvenett So #g20 trade ministers note “worrying” rise in #protectionism. They should know. g20 responsible for 81% of protectionism worldwide in 2015
JordanEliseo The Reaction to Brexit Is the Reason Brexit Happened | Rolling Stone rollingstone.com/politics/news/…
… also, a teriffic banner photospiked-online.com/newsite/articl…fx
“Virtue signalling is the epitome of the new faux-compassionate, egocentric left.” Agree or not it’s great polemic::spiked-online.com/newsite/articl…
“What I found most inspiring… is#Leaverer’s] sense of optimism and appetite for change”spiked-online.com/newsite/articl…zf
“The WTOI is not intended as a short-term forecast” Disingenuous? #WTO must know that’s how the “dial” will be read::wto.org/english/news_e…
Uh-huh! “…end-point bias inherent in smoothing algorithms…data points may occasionally be subject to strong revisions in subsequent months.”
Hmm…”Indices of the [WTO Trade Outlook] are …seasonally adjusted, smoothed, de-trended and amplitude adjustwto.org/english/news_e…A9u0
Oops! “gagner” (Blast this iOS idiotic predictive text! I’d really prefer to make my own spelling errors!)
“…Vous allez gangner un bon voisin!” Well saidtwitter.com/holland_tom/st…g1
Thanks @SincDavidson for relaying the abusive term “reg monkeys”; one to treasure (do read the Borjas link)::catallaxyfiles.com/2016/07/08/the…
OTOH, here is @SimonEvenett arguing (2013) the the UK did better out of EU FTAs than it would on its own::gov.uk/government/upl…
Still trade agreements are oversized, overrated, chiefly for. pol gestures. Don’t create trade; most have small, declining impact on growth.
UK does not lack ‘negotiators’. I’ve trained hundreds of trade negotiators; most are middle level civil servants in any central govt agency.
#Brexit gives UK options for deals w/ rest of world (60% of exports now) that are near impossible w/ EU28 (see #CETA, #TPIP)
Idea UK might lack trade agreements post #Brexit started w/ Obama’s rudeness (‘back of queue’); gets too much cred::ft.com/cms/s/0/dd6853…
A pretty good piece (brief, back-links) on #CETA’s ‘mixed’ status. Not entirely a #Brexit reaction::ipolitics.ca/2016/07/05/eur…
CoppetainPU As I understand it, it’s a “MIxed agreement” where competence is shared between Commission and Member States/Council twitter.com/Trade_EU/statu…
@SimonEvenett HI Simon: can’t seem to get this BBC audio outside UK. Is your 2103 paper available?
Is the slump in stocks of (3) UK companies a warning for GBR or EU post #Brexit? twitter.com/kncukier/statu…
🇺🇸Thomas Jefferson 🇺🇸 @ GitHub: “Weeding out some of my verboseness (which, although lovely, is a bit superfluous)”::github.com/usgov/forget-t…
Have #Leave leaders disappointed? Have they prepared less, behaved worse than #Remain’s leaders? Seen from abroad it looks like a toss-up.
Most cited guess about UK gains from EU memsh’p (siecon.org/online/wp-cont…) is really about counterfactual case based on experience of ARG+NZ
Or maybe not “…but we haven’t got the slightest idea how long talks between Britain & EU will take, or the result.twitter.com/CNBCi/status/7…xv
jamieamartin1 Me for @CityAM : Britain can look forward with definite optimism to post EU future cityam.com/244612/britain… #EUreferendum
RossCameron4 UK’s George Osborne ready to slash company tax to 15% to “build super-competitive economy” | afr.com afr.com/news/economy/u…
DanielJHannan Extraordinary. Schäuble admits he only threatened to exclude us from the market because George Osborne asked him to. welt.de/politik/deutsc…